U.S. Senate election, 2006



Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.

The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Major Parties
Of the seats being contested, 17 are held by Democrats, 15 are held by Republicans, and 1 by an independent who votes with the Democratic caucus.

The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and 1 independent. (The independent, former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont, began voting with the Democratic caucus in 2001, but will not seek re-election.)

To gain a majority in the Senate, Democrats will need 51 seats, holding their 17 seats at risk and acquiring a gain of 6 or 7 seats depending on whether the open Vermont seat is won by a Republican. With only 50 seats, the Democrats would remain in the minority as Vice President Dick Cheney as President of the Senate, breaks all tie votes.

To gain a "working majority" of 60 members, the number of votes required to break a filibuster, Republicans will need to gain five seats and hold their 15 seats at risk.

Races to watch
It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Incumbent senators have a high rate of re-election, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the political trends of their state. The most competitive races tend to be those where the incumbent has retired, and those races in which the incumbent has served only one term are frequently competitive.

Additional special elections that are held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim would change the party balances listed above.

Jon Corzine – New Jersey
Corzine, currently the most popular elected official in New Jersey, would probably be easily reelected if he ran, but is a candidate for the 2005 gubernatorial election, and is considered a favorite to win in the general election. If elected, he would likely appoint another Democrat to finish his Senate term, possibly Rep. Rob Andrews, Rep. Bob Menendez, or current acting governor and state senator Richard Codey, leaving the presumed interim Senator comparatively vulnerable in 2006, after only a year in office. Republicans are likely to field a strong candidate with a state-wide organization and name recognition, such as 2001 gubernatorial nominee and 2005 Republican gubernatorial primary candidate Bret Schundler, or 2002 Senate and 2005 gubernatorial nominee Doug Forrester, unless one of them defeats Corzine in the 2005 race. Should Corzine lose the governor's race, he would be likely to finance another major campaign to retain his current office. Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr., the son of the former New Jersey Governor Thomas Kean announced on March 25, 2005 that he will run for the U.S. Senate seat regardless of who wins the 2005 race for governor. It has also been reported that current U.S. Ambassador to the Netherlands Clifford M. Sobel, who is retiring this summer, may run for the Republican Senate nomination.

Mark Dayton – Minnesota
Main article : Minnesota U.S. Senate election, 2006

On February 9, 2005, Mark Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate, leaving an open seat to be contested.

Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, the GOP candidate, secured major GOP endorsements and will not face any serious challengers. Kennedy has benefited greatly from high-profile Republicans coming to fund raise for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July, 2005.

On the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) side, there are a half-dozen candidates seeking the DFL nomination and endorsement, but only four have declared. The current DFL front runner is Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar. Children's advocate Patty Wetterling, who was Kennedy's 2004 unsuccessful Congressional opponent, is also seeking the seat. The relatively unknown real estate mogul Kelly Doran (worth $200+ million) plans to spend about $6 million of his own money to increase his name recognition and seek the nomination. Veterinarian, philanthropist, and heir to a founder of General Mills, Ford Bell has also announced his candidacy. Bell will rely only on contributions to fund his campaigns. Both Wetterling and Klobuchar have promised to abide by a DFL endorsement, but Doran has said he will campaign to the primary regardless of a DFL endorsement and Bell has not stated yet what he'll do. Minneapolis attorney Mike Ciresi, who narrowly lost to Dayton in the 2000 DFL primary, is also considering another bid.

Klobuchar and Kennedy are the only two candidates who have been elected to office.

The only poll publicly released in this race so far, which was conducted February, 2005 for the Wetterling campaign, shows Patty Wetterling defeating Mark Kennedy 47%-39%, and Amy Klobuchar defeating Kennedy 40%-38%. Minnesota political analyists speculate that this poll means little more than Wetterling has the highest state-wide name recognition.

Bill Frist – Tennessee
Frist has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in 2006, and is widely considered to have presidential aspirations for the 2008 election. This will leave an open seat, contested by Democratic candidates Rep. Harold Ford, Jr. and State Senator Rosalind Kurita. Former Reps. Ed Bryant and Van Hilleary, along with Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker, are running in the Republican primary.

Jim Jeffords – Vermont
Main article : Vermont U.S. Senate election, 2006

Jeffords left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being re-elected as a Republican in 2000. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term, possibly for health reasons. Rep. Bernard Sanders, an independent and self-described socialist, is expected to run with little or no challenge from Democrats for the seat. Former Republican challenger Greg Parke plans to try his hand again, and both Lt. Governor Brian Dubie and businessman Richard Tarrant are considering running. A Research 2000 poll conducted in May showed Sanders with a 40 percent lead over both Dubie and Tarrant.

Paul Sarbanes – Maryland
Sarbanes announced on March 11, 2005 that he would retire in 2006 rather than run for re-election. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe; Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. Former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume and Rep. Ben Cardin have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Most other prominent Maryland Democrats have decided not to run or are not likely to enter the race. Maryland Republicans are attempting to recruit Lt. Gov. Michael Steele, who is generally seen as their best chance to capture the seat. Steele is considering his options and is expected to announce his intentions soon.

Trent Lott – Mississippi
An article appeared on Rollcall.com that suggested that Senator Lott (who was affected by Hurricane Katrina when his house was destroyed) might retire in order to get his life back in order. There has been no comments by Senator Lott, but should he run again it is almost certain that he will win as the Democrats have not put up a strong candidate yet. Should he retire, his Senate seat will almost definitely be contested.

Maria Cantwell – Washington
Cantwell is drawing fire from liberals in Washington for many of her votes during President Bush's first term, including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution and the confirmation of Condoleezza Rice. 2004 gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi, widely considered the strongest possible GOP candidate, declined to run. Former CEO of Safeco, Mike McGavick is the only announced GOP candidate. McGavick has a lot of money to self-finance his campaign.

Hillary Clinton – New York
Clinton, former First Lady and wife of former president Bill Clinton, is challenged by Republicans Jeanine Pirro and Ed Cox. It is widely speculated and rumored that Clinton will make a bid for the Presidency in 2008. If this is true, winning the Senate race would be crucial. Clinton faces few tough challenges, since she is widely popular in New York with approval ratings over 60, and New York is a mostly Democratic state that went to John Kerry in the 2004 election. According to an April poll from Marist College’s Institute for Public Opinion, Senator Clinton led Pirro 64 percent to 28 percent. In August, a W-N-B-C-Marist College poll showed that Clinton's lead slipped, but remained still strong, at 50 percent to 28 percent.

Kent Conrad – North Dakota
Conrad faces the problem of being a Democratic senator in an increasingly Republican Great Plains state, and hopes to avoid the fate of Tom Daschle. Governor John Hoeven, re-elected by a 43-point margin in 2004, is being courted by President Bush to challenge Conrad, and would likely prove a formidable opponent. If Hoeven runs, Conrad will be vulnerable. Otherwise, he is expected to cruise to reelection as junior Senator Byron Dorgan did in 2004. Conrad currently enjoys extremely high approval ratings of over 70%.

Bill Nelson – Florida
As the only southern Democrat facing re-election, Nelson will draw major regional attention to this race. Florida also will elect a new governor in 2006, and the cost of two major campaigns in a large state could require that one of the Republican candidates have a high profile. Rep. Katherine Harris, who served as Secretary of State during the 2000 election, is the presumed favorite in a Republican primary. Though polls show Nelson with an 48% approval rating as of 8/23/05 (not at or above the crucial 50% of an incumbent), he has a lead of 9 points against Harris (47 to 38), and with polls showing her with a big lead in the primaries, Nelson has good chances. Top Republicans, including Governor Jeb Bush and those close to President Bush, are trying to find a candidate to oppose Harris in the primary as they fear she will drive up Democratic turn out due to her controversial role in the 2000 election. So far, the only ones to go against her are Afganistan War General Tommy Franks, Lt. Governor Toni Jennings, and Congressman Mark Foley, though they are all trailing in the polls (Harris 55, Franks 20, Jennings 8, and Foley 6).

Conrad Burns – Montana
Burns faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, could make this a competitive race. Burns is also rumored to be considering retirement. State auditor John Morrison has filed papers to run for the Democratic nomination, and popular state senate president Jon Tester has announced his candidacy.

Lincoln Chafee – Rhode Island
Chafee, perhaps the most liberal Republican in the Senate, will face a challenge from Cranston mayor Steve Laffey. Currently, the candidates for the Democratic nomination are Secretary of State Matt Brown and former Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse. US Reps. Jim Langevin and Patrick J. Kennedy have both chosen not to run.

Rick Santorum – Pennsylvania
Main article : Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election, 2006 Santorum is a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 percent. In his last election in the year 2000, Santorum received 7,706 more votes than Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for President, who won Pennsylvania by 4 percent. Santorum ran against US Rep. Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat from southeastern Pennsylvania. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable, and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Democrat Bob Casey, Jr., Pennsylvania's state treasurer, announced his candidacy on March 5, 2005. Currently, his only primary opponents are college professor Chuck Pennacchio and Alan Sandals. Polls pitting Casey against Santorum have generally indicated greater support for Casey. As of 9/12/05, Casey is leading Santorum 52 to 38 percent in the polls. A Casey-Santorum race would feature two pro-life candidates, a rarity in major elections.

Jim Talent – Missouri
Main article : Missouri U.S. Senate election, 2006

Talent, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, might face a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Unlike most states, Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was elected by a very slim margin, which suggests that he might be vulnerable, and he now has a well-known challenger in Claire McCaskill, Missouri's state auditor and 2004 Democratic gubernatorial candidate. A recent poll by Rasmussen Reports shows both candidates being supported by 46% of Missouri voters.

Mike DeWine – Ohio
Main article : Ohio U.S. Senate election, 2006

DeWine has low approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party could hurt his re-election chances. Democratic hopes have been raised by the ongoing "Coingate" scandal and the unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft. The senator's son, R. Patrick DeWine, lost the Republican nomination for the Second Congressional District, suggesting DeWine's influence may be waning. DeWine could also face a tough primary challenge from several more conservative Republicans unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominees. One possible opponent could be U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, who would have to risk a safe congressional seat to run, but is reportedly being recruited by several Democratic leaders. U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan is also a potential candidate though he is young at age 32. Another potential candidate is lawyer and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt in the 2005 Special election for the second Ohio congressional district, a significant feat for a Democrat in Ohio's most conservative district.