Electoral Calculus.co.uk.s' May 17th 2019 election prediction for Aberavon seat

Overview
A UK wide poll released on the 17th of May, 2019, indicated the Conservatives losing Thurrock to the Brexit Party in a general election.

2017 election results
County/Area: West Glamorgan (Wales) Electorate: 49,891 Turnout: 66.7%
 * 1) The incumbent MP is Stephen Kinnock (LAB)

The opinion poll results
It was a poll conducted shortly after the local elections, for www.electoralcalculus.co.uk by an unknown outside polling agency.

{| ! colspan="2"|Chance of winning
 * LAB
 * CON
 * Plaid
 * CON
 * Plaid
 * Plaid
 * Plaid
 * Plaid


 * UKIP
 * LIB
 * LIB
 * LIB
 * LIB


 * Green
 * ChUK
 * ChUK
 * ChUK
 * ChUK


 * Brexit
 * OTH
 * OTH
 * OTH
 * OTH


 * }

A

Also see

 * 1) The CBI and TUC unite again against Brexit
 * 2) The March 27th indicative votes
 * 3) The 'no deal Brexit' vote of 13 March, 2019 and the March 25th statement.
 * 4) May 12th UK opinion polling on the May 23rd EU election

Source

 * 1) https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Aberavon
 * 2) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48227459
 * 3) https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9041529/european-elections-uk-candidates-brexit-party/
 * 4) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
 * 5) https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/11/poll-surge-for-farage-panic-conservatives-and-labour
 * 6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom
 * 7) http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/european-elections
 * 8) https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Aberavon
 * 9) http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/12300/voting-intentions-euro-election-2019?page=4
 * 10) https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nigel-farage-banned-local-allegedly-134837534.html
 * 11) https://news.search.yahoo.com/search;_ylt=A2KIbMrQxNhcmVQA4zVXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTE0cnU1YmFqBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDQjcyMzBfMQRzZWMDcGl2cw--?p=uk+euroelection+poll&fr2=piv-web&fr=yset_chr_cnewtab
 * 12) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48227459
 * 13) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countries_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_population
 * 14) https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9041529/european-elections-uk-candidates-brexit-party/
 * 15) https://uk.news.yahoo.com/nigel-farage-banned-local-allegedly-134837534.html
 * 16) https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Aberavon